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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get the independent elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had known him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd