A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
